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UK Forecast: Frosty, sunny, cold - Milder, rain for Northern Ireland, Jan 27 - 16:57

news@weatheronline.co.uk (News WeatherOnline) — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 16:57:17 GMT

Saturday A rather cold, frosty start this morning with most areas fine, dry and sunny. Staying dry and quite sunny much of England and Wales this afternoon but more cloudy across Scotland and across Northern Ireland outbreaks of rain will spill in during the afternoon as a front tries to move in from the west. Expect highs of 4 to 6C.

Saturday Night An area of rain lingers across Northern Ireland this evening and turns heavier in the night. Clear and cold this evening across most of Britain. This leads to a dry, clear and cold night with a widespread, sharp frost across Britain. Expect lows of 0 to -5C but +5C for Northern Ireland.

Sunday Cold and frosty again this morning but dry and sunny though more cloudy in the west as an area of rain, preceded by some snow spreads into the south west England and Wales. In the afternoon there is a risk of snow showers across north east England and eastern Scotland and some may be heavy and generally more cloud across England this afternoon. Snow showers retreat back to North Sea coasts for this evening and tonight with little change in the west. A hard, frost to come tonight in central and eastern areas. Highs today of 4 to 6C.

Monday Not too much change in the weather pattern for today with a cold day and a frosty morning. Perhaps more sunshine today with snow showers along those North Sea coasts. Rain does clear from Northern Ireland with some light snow flurries in the afternoon and across parts of Cornwall, Devon and Wales. Windier in the north today. Clear and cold with a widespread and hard frost tonight. Highs of 2 to 4C.

Morning Call: Showers & sunny spells - Feeling cold, Jan 27 - 06:04

news@weatheronline.co.uk (News WeatherOnline) — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 06:04:21 GMT

Frosty by night Not too bad a day today but a cold start across much of the country with a frost. Lots of sunshine to come this morning with showers around western coasts. More in the way of cloud and showers is expected across Wales and England this afternoon and a few may be heavy. Expect highs of 4 to 8C.

Overall a dry, colder night with a risk of a widespread frost. A few wintry showers will persist across northern Scotland. Lows of -1 to -4C.

If you're heading abroad, lots of showers are expected through the Mediterranean. Be sure to check out the Weatheronline Week Ahead forecast for more information on the weather across the United Kingdom for the next seven days. Have a good day. Simon Email me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk

Week ahead: A cold week - Milder in far west, Jan 27 - 08:39

news@weatheronline.co.uk (News WeatherOnline) — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 08:39:08 GMT

Hard frosts developing This week sees it becoming much colder as high pressure to the east builds in across the country with milder conditions across western Scotland and Northern Ireland. An area of rain that comes into the west may be preceded by some snow before it fades on Monday. Widespread and hard frosts are forecast this week. For the weather for the next few days click here Monday 30/01/12 Mainly dry an d cold across eastern parts of England. Rain is expected in the west with a risk of some light snow from the West Midlands into north west England and Scotland that fades through the day. A widespread frost tonight with rain across Northern Ireland and northern Scotland. Highs of 2 to 6C.

Tuesday 31/01/12 Generally a cloudy day with outbreaks of rain across Scotland West Wales, Cornwall and Northern Ireland. Cold but dry across the rest of the country with some sunshine. Another sharp, widespread frost across England tonight. Highs of 1 to 4C.

Wednesday 01/02/12 A very cold day and there is a risk of some rain across northern Scotland. The bulk of the country looks dry with good sunny spells. A hard frost by night with a risk of a few patches of freezing fog. Expect highs of 1 to 5C.

Thursday 02/02/12 Another very cold day to come and there is a further risk of rain across northern Scotland. Dry for most of the country with sunny spells after any dense freezing fog patches disperse. A moderate to locally severe frost is possible tonight across England and Wales. Expect highs of 1 to 5C.

Friday 03/02/12 Outbreaks of rain, preceded by snow may move into northern parts of Britain. Dry in the south with some sunshine though confidence is low in the forecast at this point. Highs of 2 to 6C. Saturday 04/02/12 Outbreaks of rain may affect areas from Wales northward. The south looks to stay settled and dry. Highs of 3 to 7C.

Month ahead: Valid from 31/01 to 27/02 2014 - Winter on the way?, Jan 21 - 15:00

news@weatheronline.co.uk (News WeatherOnline) — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 15:00:07 GMT

Winter, which, being full of care, makes summer's welcome thrice more wish'd, more rare. William Shakespeare, Sonnet LVI It is one of those occasions when I somehow I'd wished I'd remained under the duvet this morning as I'd have missed the deadline for compiling this forecast and although still being in trouble with 'the boss' for being late in filing it, I'd let myself 'off the hook' by not having to make a commitment on which way I believe this pattern is about to 'jump'? Winter 2011-12 was never going to be a replay of last year, although many expected and anticipated that it would be, for me I have to say that it has been somewhat of a 'disappointment' in terms of interesting 'activity' or characteristic seasonal conditions so far, that however may be about to alter. Perhaps this winter could be a 'mirror image' of last year, the coldest conditions 'bunched up' in the final 'statistical meteorological month' rather than the first in 2011-12? The dilemma at the moment is that all the guns are primed for a 'salvo' of intensely cold polar air to come southwards into continental Europe, whether this gets into the UK is the critical factor and is dependent upon a build of pressure which is expected to take place through the next week to ten days, an easterly flow would see this flooding across the British Isles and when compared to recent temperatures a dramatic alteration is fortunes, the determination of the actual wind direction through this period will be crucial to this forecasts viability. *--- 26/01/12* The short term sees conditions dominated by a west to northwesterly flow, some rain, some showers and some drier weather for all the UK. Temperatures although 'reasonable' at first looks set to be declining away, some more general outbreaks of rain and strong winds taking the edge of the benefit of this, as the period closes it looks as if a potentially major change in fortunes could occur. A wet and windy period is indicated for all areas crossing from the west, followed by a blustery and increasingly cool regime and becoming colder later. *27/01/12 - 05/02/12* It'll be around this date that high pressure should begin to take control of the overall pattern, the location of its development crucial for the importation of colder air becoming entrenched over central Europe. Low pressure should be shunted away, taking with any remaining remnants of showery activity plaguing the UK, the whole of the country becoming largely dry, settling into a lengthy spell of quiet, mid-winter anticyclonic conditions. Winds will for the most part be light to variable in nature through the life of this high pressure, a recipe for the associated problems and benefits of mid-winter anticyclonic weather. Mist, fog and frosty conditions widespread overnight, clearing slowly in most areas to bright and or sunny but cold conditions, although in prone spots this will no doubt persist making it cold and dull, hence feeling bitterly cold. With the aforementioned dilemma in mind, as the high pressure centre drifts and inevitably shifts its position, 'a watch' will have to be maintained for a strengthening or development of any easterly component to the flow, this potentially will threaten much colder air being drawn into the UK from off the continent and perhaps some wintry weather for the south. *06/02/12 - 09/02/12* Conditions look set to alter here, a change to rather more unsettled weather being 'flagged up' as the influence of high pressure declines away and low pressure edges into the UK, however it remains on the cold side, therefore this transition may potentially be quite 'messy'? A potentially wintry component to any precipitation at first will diminish later as generally less cold air moves through all areas from off the Atlantic courtesy of low pressure transiting the UK, outbreaks of rain for all areas followed by brighter showery conditions and a flow from the northwest. *10/02/15 - 15/02/12* Rather showery across most areas at first, low pressure edging away to be followed by rise in pressure from the west. Showers affecting all areas at first, some wintry over northern higher ground will die away, mainly broken cloud with brighter conditions establishing nationwide as a developing anticyclone to the west builds across the UK. The overnight problems of frost and fog return. The hint that once again, high pressure could become a large and persistent feature. Simon & Capn Bob Email me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk

Seasonal outlook: High pressure dominates - Brifer wetter spells, Jan 02 - 18:19

news@weatheronline.co.uk (News WeatherOnline) — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 18:19:47 GMT

*February* The month begins on a westerly note with high pressure to the south and west, this becoming a large feature to the west through the first week, a colder northerly digging in as low pressure clears to the east of the British Isles. High pressure reasserts over the UK and persists as a large moving feature over the UK, through to mid-month until declining only to be replaced by a developing feature to the east, the potential for a rather wintry spell to establish as low pressure to the west and southwest attempts to push into the UK. This block should hold fast so a rather mixed regime of colder weather entrenched to the east, with less cold and eventually milder weather desperately attempting to dislodge this, on current evidence without much success until the latter stages of the month. Less cold weather should reach western and north-western Britain, but all areas will see a rather strong southerly to south-easterly flow for much of the time, central and eastern Britain remains rather chilly for much of the time throughout. *March* The anticyclonic block looks as if it'll be maintained, so much so that there is startlingly little to suggest that this will be removed through until mid-March, in the interim it'll be high pressure conditions to the east, a strong southerly flow to the west, this only easing as high pressure periodically ridges through the UK and stalled low pressure to the west fills and moves away. Any precipitation should be concentrated through western and north-western where it'll be very windy at times too with gales at times. Through the middle of the month at long last the block should be shunted out of the way allowing low pressure to break through and the Atlantic floodgates open to the whole the UK. Showers or longer outbreaks of rain, it'll still be on the cool side for many and windy, drier weather establishing once more across the south as pressure rises. The month ends where it began with yet another strong rise of pressure, an anticyclone drifting into the UK to establish to the east, another block forming the halt the progress of Atlantic systems. Bright and sunny for many, a chilly and brisk easterly top north-easterly flow establishing to take us through to the beginning of April. Simon Email me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk

Lookback: December 2011 Lookback - Frequent rain and gales, Jan 05 - 08:51

news@weatheronline.co.uk (News WeatherOnline) — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 08:51:07 GMT

Westerly winds blew throughout the month, and there were several gales in northern districts, some of which caused structural damage - notably the Christmas Day gale in Orkney and Shetland. This was the second most 'westerly' December in 139 years of records. As is typical of westerly months, there were extended periods of orographically-enhanced rain over the western highlands of Scotland, the Lake District and Snowdonia.

Mean maximum temperature for December ranged from 11.0°C at Jersey airport (Channel Is) to 4.0°C at Dalwhinnie (Inverness-shire), while mean minimum temperature varied between 8.3°C at St Mary's (Isles of Scilly) and minus 0.6°C at Aboyne (Aberdeenshire). Mean maximum temperature was 0.5 °C below the 1981-2010 average in Northern Ireland but 1.5 °C above in the Midlands, East Anglia and the Southeast; mean minimum temperature ranged from 0.0-0.5 °C below in northern Scotland to 1.5-2.0 °C above in southern England and south Wales. The Central England Temperature (CET) of 5.9°C was 1.2 °C above the long-term mean making this the warmest December since 2006, and by this measure there have been only 17 warmer Decembers in the last 100 years.

The highest maximum at a standard site (i.e excluding rooftop and mountain sites) in the UK was 15.5°C at Fyvie Castle (Aberdeenshire) on the 26th, while the lowest minimum was minus 9.4°C at Loch Glascarnoch (Wester Ross) early on the 18th. The lowest daytime maximum was minus 3.0°C at Aviemore (Inverness-shire) on the 16th, and the warmest night was that of the 25th/26th with a minimum of 12.7°C at Murlough (Co Down).

Rainfall averaged over England and Wales during December was 113mm which is 114 per cent of the average for the standard reference period 1981-2010, the highest for this month since at least 2006; in the last 100 years 23 Decembers were wetter while 77 were drier. The equivalent figures for Scotland were 161mm and 147 per cent of the normal amount, and for Northern Ireland 97mm and 101 per cent. Monthly totals at routinely-available sites varied between 625mm at Cluanie Inn (Wester Ross) and 33mm at Loftus (Cleveland). In some western and northern districts rain fell on every single day during the month.

Sunshine averaged over England and Wales during December was 55 hours which is 105 per cent of the 1981-2010 mean; nevertheless, this is the lowest figure for six years. In the last 100 years 38 Decembers were sunnier while 62 were duller. The equivalent figures for Scotland were 33 hours and 88 per cent, and for Northern Ireland 42 hours and 98 per cent. Largest individual total in the UK was 80 hours at Wattisham (Suffolk) and the smallest was 13 hours at Lerwick (Shetland).

The windiest days of the month were the 8th with a gust of 98mph at Foula (Shetland), and the 25th with a gust of 97mph at the same site.

European Summary: Showery in Mediterranean - Very cold, dry east, Jan 27 - 06:03

news@weatheronline.co.uk (News WeatherOnline) — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 06:03:14 GMT

Unsettled for western Europe Today Colder with showers across the United Kingdom and northern France today. Some light rain to come across southern France with snow over the Alps today. Mainly dry across Germany with a few showers across Belgium and Holland. Snow is forecast across Norway and Denmark but cold and dry across Sweden, Finland, Russia, the Baltic States, Belarus, Poland and the Ukraine. Here temperatures will be below freezing all day. Cold too across Romania, Bulgaria, Hungry and the former Yugoslavia with sunny spells. Heavy snow is expected across Greece with rain showers across southern Greece into Crete and Cyprus. Fine and sunny across Italy today with a risk of scattered showers around the Balearics and along the far south of Spain. A few showers too for eastern Spain.

Saturday Dry with sunny spells across England today with an area of light rain across central France. Fine and dry across Belgium, Holland, Denmark into Sweden and Finland. Dry and sunny across Spain and Portugal but plenty of heavy showers to come across the Balearics into the south of France with snow over the Alps into parts of Germany. Lots of dry but very cold weather is expected from Poland into the Baltic States, Russia, the Ukraine, Hungry, Romania into Bulgaria and the former Yugoslavia. A few showers today across Greece, Crete and Cyprus with scattered wintry showers across Turkey. A fine, dry day for Italy. Some snow is forecast for Norway and parts of Sweden.